Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Boris Orlowsky  Sonia I. Seneviratne 《Climatic change》2012,110(3-4):669-696

This study systematically analyzes the complete IPCC AR4 (CMIP3) ensemble of GCM simulations with respect to changes in extreme event characteristics at the end of the 21st century compared to present-day conditions. It complements previous studies by investigating a more comprehensive database and considering seasonal changes beside the annual time scale. Confirming previous studies, the agreement between the GCMs is generally high for temperature-related extremes, indicating increases of warm day occurrences and heatwave lengths, and decreases of cold extremes. However, we identify issues with the choice of indices used to quantify heatwave lengths, which do overall not affect the sign of the changes, but strongly impact the magnitude and patterns of projected changes in heatwave characteristics. Projected changes in precipitation and dryness extremes are more ambiguous than those in temperature extremes, despite some robust features, such as increasing dryness over the Mediterranean and increasing heavy precipitation over the Northern high latitudes. We also find that the assessment of projected changes in dryness depends on the index choice, and that models show less agreement regarding changes in soil moisture than in the commonly used ‘consecutive dry days’ index, which is based on precipitation data only. Finally an analysis of the scaling of changes of extreme temperature quantiles with global, regional and seasonal warming shows that much of the extreme quantile changes are due to a seasonal scaling of the regional annual-mean warming. This emphasizes the importance of the seasonal time scale also for extremes. Changes in extreme quantiles of temperature on land scale with changes in global annual mean temperature by a factor of more than 2 in some regions and seasons, implying large changes in extremes in several countries, even for the commonly discussed global 2°C-warming target.  相似文献   

A seasonal study of the atmospheric dynamics over the Iberian Peninsula based on circulation types     

Juan Andrés García-Valero  Juan Pedro Montavez  Sonia Jerez  Juan José Gómez-Navarro  Raquel Lorente-Plazas  Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,110(1-2):291-310

A seasonal analysis of the atmospheric circulation over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) based on circulation types (CTs) obtained from sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height is presented. The study covers the period of 1958–2008, when a high variability and important changes in winter and spring precipitation and temperature have been reported. Frequency, persistence, and the most probable transitions of the circulation types are analyzed. Among the clustering methods available in the literature, two of the most reliable classification methods have been tested, K-means and simulated annealing and diversified randomization. A comparison of both methods over the IP is presented for winter (DJF). The quality of the circulation types obtained through both methods as well as the better stability achieved by K-means suggest this method as more appropriated for our target area. Twelve CTs were obtained for each season and were analyzed. The patterns obtained were regrouped in five general situations: anticyclonic, cyclonic, zonal, summertime, and hybrid-mixed. The analysis of frequencies of these situations offers a similar characterization of the atmospheric circulation that others previously obtained by subjective methods. The analysis of the trends in frequency and persistence for each CT shows few significant trends, mainly in winter and spring with a general decrease of the cyclonic patterns and an increase of the anticyclonic situations. This can be related to the negative precipitation trends reported by other authors. Regarding the persistence, an interesting result is that there is a high interannual variability of the persistence in autumn and spring, when patterns can persist longer than in other seasons. An analysis of the most probable transitions between the CTs has been performed, revealing the existence of cyclic sequences in all seasons. These sequences are related to the high frequency of certain patterns such as the anticyclonic situations in winter. Finally, a clear seasonal dependence of the transitions between cyclonic situations associated with extratropical disturbances was found. This dependence suggests that the transitions of low-pressure systems towards the south of the IP are more likely in spring and autumn than in winter.  相似文献   

Floods in the Sahel: an analysis of anomalies, memory, and anticipatory learning     

Petra Tschakert  Regina Sagoe  Gifty Ofori-Darko  Samuel Nii Codjoe 《Climatic change》2010,103(3-4):471-502

This study explores the implications of recent extreme rainfall and flood events in the Sahel and the wider West African region for climate change adaptation. Are these events merely a temporal nuisance as suggested by the lingering desertification discourse or will more climatic extremes characterize the region over the next century? After reviewing incidences of severe rainfall and projected future climate variability, the paper examines local flood knowledge and decision-making, drawing upon a case study in Ghana. The data demonstrate that a variety of response strategies to flooding exist; yet, knowledge of and access to climate forecasts and other learning tools are essentially absent. So far, floods have not triggered mass displacement although cumulative environmental deterioration is likely to cause environmental refugees. The paper recommends to lay to rest the desertification narrative, consider the possibility of both floods and droughts, and mobilize local memory for anticipatory learning and practical adaptation.  相似文献   

What determines farmers’ resilience towards ENSO-related drought? An empirical assessment in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia     

Alwin Keil  Manfred Zeller  Anastasia Wida  Bunasor Sanim  Regina Birner 《Climatic change》2008,86(3-4):291-307

Crop production in the tropics is subject to considerable climate variability caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon that is likely to become even more pronounced during the twenty-first century. Little is known about the impact of ENSO-related drought on crop yields and food security, especially at the household level. This paper seeks to contribute to closing this knowledge gap with a case study from Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. Its main objective is to measure household resilience towards drought periods and to identify its influencing factors to deduce policy implications. Using indicators for consumption expenditures, we construct an index measuring household drought resilience; we then apply an asset-based livelihood framework to identify its determinants. Most of the drought-affected farm households are forced to substantially reduce expenditures for food and other basic necessities. Households’ drought resilience is strengthened by the possession of liquid assets, access to credit, and the level of technical efficiency in agricultural production. The results suggest a number of policy recommendations, namely improvement of the farmers’ access to ENSO forecasts, the provision of credit and savings products to facilitate consumption smoothing, and the intensification of agricultural extension in view of low levels of productivity found in agricultural production.  相似文献   

TNOs are Cool: A Survey of the Transneptunian Region     

Thomas G. Müller  Emmanuel Lellouch  Hermann Böhnhardt  John Stansberry  Antonella Barucci  Jacques Crovisier  Audrey Delsanti  Alain Doressoundiram  Elisabetta Dotto  René Duffard  Sonia Fornasier  Olivier Groussin  Pedro J. Gutiérrez  Olivier Hainaut  Alan W. Harris  Paul Hartogh  Daniel Hestroffer  Jonathan Horner  Dave Jewitt  Mark Kidger  Csaba Kiss  Pedro Lacerda  Luisa Lara  Tanya Lim  Michael Mueller  Raphael Moreno  Jose-Luis Ortiz  Miriam Rengel  Pablo Santos-Sanz  Bruce Swinyard  Nicolas Thomas  Audrey Thirouin  David Trilling 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2009,105(2-4):209-219

Over one thousand objects have so far been discovered orbiting beyond Neptune. These trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) represent the primitive remnants of the planetesimal disk from which the planets formed and are perhaps analogous to the unseen dust parent-bodies in debris disks observed around other main-sequence stars. The dynamical and physical properties of these bodies provide unique and important constraints on formation and evolution models of the Solar System. While the dynamical architecture in this region (also known as the Kuiper Belt) is becoming relatively clear, the physical properties of the objects are still largely unexplored. In particular, fundamental parameters such as size, albedo, density and thermal properties are difficult to measure. Measurements of thermal emission, which peaks at far-IR wavelengths, offer the best means available to determine the physical properties. While Spitzer has provided some results, notably revealing a large albedo diversity in this population, the increased sensitivity of Herschel and its superior wavelength coverage should permit profound advances in the field. Within our accepted project we propose to perform radiometric measurements of 139 objects, including 25 known multiple systems. When combined with measurements of the dust population beyond Neptune (e.g. from the New Horizons mission to Pluto), our results will provide a benchmark for understanding the Solar debris disk, and extra-solar ones as well.  相似文献   

Meteoroid Stream Searching: The Use of the Vectorial Elements     

Tadeusz J. Jopek  Regina Rudawska  Przemysław Bartczak 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2008,102(1-4):73-78

In this initial study, we propose a new distance function D _V involving heliocentric vectorial orbital elements. The function measures differences between: the orbital energies, the angular momentums vectors and the Laplace vectors. In comparison with the widely used D _SH criterion of Southworth and Hawkins, D _D criterion of Drummond and their hybrid D _H by Jopek, the new function contains one invariant with respect to the principal secular perturbation: the orbital energy. The new function proved to be useful in the classification amongst the IAU2003 meteoroids which we searched for streams by D _V function and also using D _SH and D _N -function given by Valsecchi et al. For major streams, the results agree very well. For minor, and near-ecliptical streams the results sometimes differ markedly.  相似文献   

Single subduction zone for the generation of Devonian ophiolites and high‐P metamorphic belts of the Variscan Orogen (NW Iberia)     

Rubn Díez Fernndez  Ricardo Arenas  Sonia Snchez Martínez  Irene Novo‐Fernndez  Richard Albert 《地学学报》2020,32(4):239-245

Within the Variscan Orogen, Early Devonian and Late Devonian high‐P belts separated by mid‐Devonian ophiolites can be interpreted as having formed in a single subduction zone. Early Devonian convergence nucleated a Laurussia‐dipping subduction zone from an inherited lithospheric neck (peri‐Gondwanan Cambrian back‐arc). Slab‐retreat induced upper plate extension, mantle incursion and lower plate thermal softening, favouring slab‐detachment within the lower plate and diapiric exhumation of deep‐seated rocks through the overlying mantle up to relaminate the upper plate. Upper plate extension produced mid‐Devonian suprasubduction ocean floor spreading (Devonian ophiolites), while further convergence resulted in plate coupling and intraoceanic ophiolite imbrication. Accretion of the remaining Cambrian ocean heralded Late Devonian subduction of inner sections of Gondwana across the same subduction zone and the underthrusting of mainland Gondwana (culmination of NW Iberian allochthonous pile). Oblique convergence favoured lateral plate sliding, and explained the different lateral positions along Gondwana of terranes separated by Palaeozoic ophiolites.  相似文献   

Denudation and retreat of the Serra do Mar escarpment in southern Brazil derived from in situ‐produced 10Be concentration in river sediment          下载免费PDF全文

André A. R. Salgado  Breno R. Marent  Luís F. S. Cherem  Didier Bourlès  Leonardo J. C. Santos  Régis Braucher  Helen N. Barreto 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(3):311-319

The Serra do Mar escarpment, located along the southeastern coast of Brazil, is a high‐elevation passive margin escarpment. This escarpment evolved from the denudation of granites, migmatites and gneisses. The granites outcrop in the form of a ridge along the escarpment crest, due to its differential erosion (‘sugarloaf’ hills) from the surrounding lithologies. Several studies suggest that the passive margin escarpments are actively retreating toward the interior of the continent. However, no prior study has calculated the long‐term denudation rates of Serra do Mar to test this hypothesis. In this study, we measured the in situ‐produced ¹⁰Be concentration in fluvial sediments to quantify the catchment‐wide long‐term denudation rates of the Serra do Mar escarpment in southern Brazil. We sampled the fluvial sediments from ten watersheds that drain both sides of the escarpment. The average long‐term denudation rate of the oceanic side is between 2.1‐ and 2.6‐fold higher than the rate of the continental side: 26.04 ± 1.88 mm ka^‐1 (integrating over between 15.8 ka^‐1 and 46.6 ka^‐1) and 11.10 ± 0.37 mm ka^‐1 (integrating over between 52.9 ka^‐1 and 85.4 ka^‐1), respectively. These rates indicate that the coastal base level is controlling the escarpment retreat toward the continental high lands, which is consistent with observations made at other high‐elevation passive margins around the globe. The results also demonstrate the differential erosion along the Serra do Mar escarpment in southern Brazil during the Quaternary, where drainages over granites had lower average denudation rates in comparison with those over migmatites and gneisses. Moreover, the results demonstrate that the ocean‐facing catchments have been eroded more intensely than those facing the continent. The results also reveal that drainage over the granites decreases the average denudation rates of the ocean‐facing catchments and the ‘sugarloaf’ hills therefore are natural barriers that slowly retreat once they are exhumed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Late Pleistocene tectonic-geomorphological development within a passive margin — The Cariatá trough, northeastern Brazil     

Francisco H.R. Bezerra  Benjamim B. Brito Neves  Antonio C.B. Corrêa  Alcina M.F. Barreto  Kenitiro Suguio   《Geomorphology》2008,97(3-4):555-582

Studies on the geomorphological evolution of the South American passive margin have been based on the pediplanation model, which predicts that its morphology is a response to regional uniform uplift and concomitant development of erosion surfaces. We combined remote sensing, geological mapping, lithostratigraphic and facies analyses, and luminescence dating in the Cariatá trough, northeastern Brazil, in order to determine how brittle tectonics and climate influenced colluviation and the shaping of local landforms in the Quaternary. Our work indicates that Cariatá is an asymmetrical trough  40 km long,  25 km wide, 250–550 m deep, and delimited by ENE–WSW-trending faults to the north and south. We recognized an ENE–WSW-oriented compression related to a strike-slip faulting regime, which corresponds to the present-day stress field in the region. This faulting event led to the deposition of colluvial fans, shed from adjacent uplifted crustal blocks, in a tectonically controlled depression. The colluvial succession is  45 m thick and presents two facies assemblages that filled the southern and, in particular, the northern borders of the trough: non-cohesive debrisflow and mudflow deposits. Optically stimulated luminescence dates of the sedimentary infill yielded ages at 224–128 ka and 45–28 ka, dominated by debrisflow and mudflow deposits, respectively. These ages may be over-estimated due to poor bleaching of colluvium, but they and our field data suggest that the margins of the trough were tectonically uplifted and eroded twice in the Late Pleistocene. The spasmodic colluvial accretion reflects the occurrence of high-magnitude, low-recurrence episodes probably associated with climate shifts in a semi-arid hillslope system. It follows that the present-day low-lying piedmont in which the Cariatá trough occurs is a juxtaposition of surfaces of various ages. This trough may have counterparts across the region. These conclusions do not corroborate the application of the cyclical pediplanation hypothesis in the area.  相似文献   

Sulfur Determination in Geological Samples Based on Coupled Analytical Techniques: Electric Furnace-IC and TGA-EGA     

Maria F. Gazulla  Maria P. Gómez  Mónica Orduña  Eulalia Zumaquero  Sonia Vicente 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2009,33(1):71-84

A study has been undertaken to determine sulfur in geological samples by coupled analytical techniques. Two measurement methods have been developed: one using an electric furnace coupled to an ion chromatograph (electric furnace-IC) and another using infrared (IR) and quadrupole mass spectrometry (QMS) for evolved gas analysis (EGA) coupled with a thermogravimetric analyser (TGA). In the electric furnace-IC method, measurement was performed without any sample pre-treatment. The measurement conditions were optimised by varying sample quantity, type of catalyst (WO₃, Cu, W and V₂O₅) and sample/catalyst ratio, and the detection limit was 10 μg g⁻¹. Sulfur ores decompose at different temperatures. However, TGA-EGA allowed identification of the different forms of sulfur in the sample, even when they were found in very low concentrations, because the sulfur was continuously analysed. The developed chromatographic method allowed simultaneous analysis of several sample components, such as S, Cl and F, with a low detection limit. The method was much faster and more specific than the methods described in the literature. The results of the sulfur determination had low scatter, possibly because the samples underwent little handling during analysis: the operator only weighed and placed the sample in the furnace, the rest of the measurement process was fully automated. The results obtained by both the developed methods have been validated by using reference materials and comparison with combustion-IR spectroscopy, a standard method for determining total sulfur in a sample.  相似文献